After 54 Super Bowl matchups some trends have developed that could offer some insight on how you approach this year’s contest from a betting perspective. I take a stab at making my picks on the final NFL game of the season.
The game opened up with Kansas City as a -3.5 favorite, but as of Thursday morning the line has dropped to -3 in many Vegas spots and online sportsbooks with the total falling from 57.5 to 56 in recent days. You can still find it at 3.5 if you look hard enough though.
There are so many football prop bets to consider. There are definitely a few I will identify here that are advisable bets.
If you don’t like the spread you can always play the money line. Kansas City is -162 currently at DraftKings Sportsbook and Tampa Bay sits at +140 to win straight up.
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There are also plenty of player prop bets to consider, including a few of my favorites:
Leonard Fournette over 3.5 receptions (-168 at FanDuel)
This prop bet is one that is game flow friendly. Whether the Bucs are up or down, Fournette should see the targets required to get to this mark. Ronald Jones is going to be more involved, but Fournette dominates passing downs and should once again be the lead back. Even though he didn’t reach four catches much during the regular season, the veteran has surpassed this mark in all three of Tampa Bay’s playoff games.
Scotty Miller under 20.5 ReYd (-115 at FanDuel)
He could crush this prop with a single catch so be prepared to sweat this one out. That said, Miller has gone under this mark in 11 of 19 games. With Antonio Brown now looking as if he’s going to play expect Miller to see fewer snaps, routes, and targets.
Travis Kelce Most Receiving Yards (+260 at FanDuel)
While I considered rolling out some money on Travis Kelce for MVP (+1300), the safer bet still with some good value is for him to have more receiving yards than any other player in the game. The Bucs have a few more options seemingly capable of winning this, but that also means more mouths to feed. Tyreek Hill seems like logical choice to do it also and even has better odds (+330), but I’m expecting the Bucs to focus more resources on him.
Darrell Williams under 42.5 RuYd + ReYd (-124 at FanDuel)
Williams has been the man in KC’s backfield through the first two playoff games, but the extra week off definitely will help Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le’Veon Bell get healthier. I’m expecting less opportunities for Williams in this contest and leaves me thinking that this number is a bit out of his reach.
Sammy Watkins under 3.5 receptions (-142 at FanDuel)
It looks as if Watkins will be able to suit up on Sunday, but I do question how close to 100 percent he will be. He did get to four catches in three of his last six regular season contests, but I’d be surprised to see him hit that mark in this one.
Length of National Anthem (source Oddshark.com)
Over 119 seconds (EVEN) / Under 119 seconds (-140): MY PICK – Under 119: For the first time since Super Bowl 40, the National Anthem will be a duet. R&B singer Jazmine Sullivan and country music star Eric Church. Over the last 15 years the average length for the national anthem is one minute 55 seconds. For what it’s worth the last time there was a duet (Aretha Franklin and Aaron Neville) the went 2:08. It has gone 1:53 or less in three straight years after a streak of over two minute performances in four of the previous five Super Bowls. Of note, when Sullivan sang the anthem for an NHL Stadium Series game between the Wild and Blackhawks in February 2016 she was clocked out at 1:38.
What Color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach (source Crossingboard.com)
Color: Orange (+200), Red (+300), Clear/Water (+600), Green/Yellow/Lime (+700), Purple (+1100), (Blue +1500): MY PICK: N/A
Over the past 20 Super Bowls, the color has varied quite a bit. Yellow has been dumped on the winning coach three times, while clear had a four-season run from Super Bowl 39-42. Purple has had its time to shine twice, while blue has hit twice in the past six Super Bowls. The big winner, however, is orange, which showered Andy Reid at the end of Super Bowl 54. Orange hasn’t repeated since Super Bowl 44 and 45, which also marks the last time any color repeated. Sure, there’s a chance of no shower at all, as happened three times in the last 20 games, but where’s the fun in that?
ALL-TIME TRENDS (from VegasInsider.com):
The AFC and NFC have split with 27 wins each in the first 54 Super Bowl matchups.
Favorites have gone 36-17 straight up and 29-20-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The largest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.
In the 20 Super Bowls played in the 21st Century, the underdog has cashed 12 times and the favorite has come in just seven times, including three of the last four years. Super Bowl XLIX between New England and Seattle was a PK.
One common denominator in the favorites that have covered during that span is that they were short favorites. Seven times over the past two decades the closing line was three points or less (throwing out the PK in 2015) and the team laying points covered in five of those instances. The Chiefs covered as 1.5 point favorites last season, knocking off the 49ers 31-20 in in Super Bowl 54.
The ‘over/under’ has gone 27-26 in the first 54 Super Bowl matchups. No total was posted on Super Bowl I between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs. Getting over 56 total points has only occurred 10 times in Super Bowl history and only twice since 2004. One of those two occurrences (NE vs. ATL – Super Bowl LI) required overtime to get it done.
Last year’s game went under the 53. It was the 12th Super Bowl to have a total close in the fifties. The ‘under’ has now gone 8-4 in Super Bowl matchups that have closed with a total in the fifties.
Another thing to consider if you like the under that in Tom Brady’s previous nine Super Bowls, slow starts have become the norm. During his career Tom Brady-led teams have scored a grand total of three points in the first quarter across nine contests.
THE COIN TOSS (TheLines.com)
Having a tough time deciding on what side of the line or total you like, but still want some action? Wagering on the Super Bowl coin toss, a 50/50 proposition, is an option many turn to each year.
Five of the last seven years the coin toss has come up tails on Super Bowl Sunday, with the NFC team winning an amazing 20 of the last 23. Last year it was heads and San Francisco which added to that total. Surprisingly, the team that has won the coin toss has lost the past six Super Bowls.
Throughout the game’s history the coin toss has been nearly 50/50 with heads coming up 25 times (47 percent) and tails landing 29 times (53 percent) in the 54 Super Bowls.
THE FAN’S BEST BET
I created a Twitter poll to ask my followers what they thought was the best bet…
Which of these four bets is most likely to be the winning #SuperBowlLV parlay?
— Dan Clasgens (@DanClasgens) January 31, 2021
The betting public is definitely starting to trend to a certain direction as of Thursday…
Handle% movement Super Bowl (@BetMGM):
Monday (Jan 25): 80% on Chiefs
Monday (Feb 1): 51% on Buccaneers
Today: 53% on @Buccaneers
Monday (Jan 25): 82% on over
Monday (Feb 1): 71% on over
Today: 67% on over https://t.co/pi0eOijox1
— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 4, 2021
I will lay out a plan based off what I do if someone gave me $100 to bet on the Super Bowl. Whatever your bankroll you can apply you the percentage accordingly. All of my bets are based off trends above.
Prediction: Bucs 29, Chiefs 26
$40 Under 56.5 (Bet MGM) – BEST BET
$20 Bucs +3.5 (Bet MGM)
$10 Bucs ML +144 (FanDuel)
$5 Tom Brady to win MVP +200 (Bet MGM)
(I like the Bucs and if they win it’s hard to see Brady not being MVP)
$5 each on the five player props listed above.
Follow me on Twitter for more football talk @DanClasgens