Betting Super Bowl LIV

January 31, 2020

After 53 Super Bowl matchups some trends have developed that could offer some insight on how you approach this year’s contest from a betting perspective. I take a stab at making my picks on the final NFL game of the season.

The game opened up with Kansas City as a -1.5 favorite, but as on Monday night the line has dropped to one in many Vegas spots with the total rising from 54 to 54.5 in recent days. Vegas is going to get hit heavy by California bettors backing the 49ers so folks in other places might have to lay a bit more to bet the Chiefs.

There are so many football prop bets to consider. There are definitely a few I will identify here that are advisable bets.

If you don’t like the spread you can always play the money line. Though this year there isn’t much difference. Kansas City is -120 to -125 and San Francisco sits at +100 – +107 depending on where you are betting. 

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There are also plenty of prop bets to consider, including a few of my favorites:

GAME SPECIFIC PROPS (source DraftKings)

To Score – TD George Kittle (+110)
Kittle has been quiet during the playoffs, but expect him to get it going a bit in the biggest game of his football career. The Chiefs have allowed a TE touchdown in both of their playoff games (Fells/Frisker) and ceded the 11th most fantasy points to the position during the regular season. Expect Kittle to be heavily involved, particularly in the red zone.

Damien Williams 82.5 RuYd + ReYd (-112)
Williams has been a bell cow for the Chiefs in recent weeks in terms of snaps and touches. Look for the 49ers to focus mostly on Kelce and defending deep. That means they’ll likely concede the short stuff dump offs to Williams and the KC runner shouldn’t see too many stacked boxes in the contest when he does carry the football.

Longest Reception of the Game – Mecole Hardman (+1100)
With Tyreek Hill garnering so much of San Francisco’s attention, the likelihood of one of Kansas City’s other deep threats making a big play is this game is high. Based off the value, Hardman and his blazing speed really appeal to me here.

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NOVELTY PROPS (source Bovada)

Length of National Anthem (Demi Lovato)
Over 124 seconds (-130) / Under 124 seconds (-110):  MY PICK – Under 124: It will be close, but I’ll take the better value. Gladys Knight went very long last year, but still just ended up at 121 seconds. Prior to her performance the average run time in the previous 27 years was 115.4 seconds or one minute and 55 seconds. Only nine of the 27 performances went over the two minute mark, but the last four years went over.

How many times will Alex Rodriguez Be Shown During Halftime Show?
Over 0.5 (+145) / Under 0.5 (-190) – MY PICK – Over 0.5: There will be a ton going on with the show, but there is now way A-Rod’s mug doesn’t make it on to our TV screens at least once, especially considering his past and previous work with various FOX networks.

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RECENT TRENDS TO CONSIDER (from VegasInsider.com):
Over the last 26 years the favorite has only gone 9-15-2 against the spread, but they have won straight up 17 times.

In six of the past eight years not only has the underdog covered, but they’ve won straight up.

Prior to New England covering last year as a 2.5 point favorite vs. the Rams in their 13-3 win, the underdog has definitely been the way to go as of late. Had the Patriots not rallied from down 25 three years earlier it would’ve been six straight years that the dog covered and won the game.

Since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won their first Super Bowl together in 2003, the Underdog has hit in 13 of 18 games. The Patriots started that run when they won straight up as a 14-point underdog knocking off the Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI.

The over has been the way to go in four of the last six years and has come in 15 of the past 25 Super Bowls. This year’s total of 54.5 points has been surpassed in three of the last six title games. During that span we’ve seen 50 or more points scored five times.

On the season, the Chiefs are 12-5-1 and the 49ers are 11-6-1 against the spread. The under has cashed in ten of Kansas City’s 18 games this season, including each of the last three contests, while the over is 9-8-1 for San Francisco. 

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ALL-TIME TRENDS (from VegasInsider.com):
The NFC owns a 27-26 edge over the AFC in the first 53 Super Bowl matchups. 

Favorites have gone 35-17 straight up and 28-20-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The largest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.

The New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 in the 2019 finale and they covered as 2 ½-point favorites.

The ‘over/under’ has gone 27-25 in the first 53 Super Bowl matchups. No total was posted on Super Bowl I between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs.

In the 2019 Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 and the combined 16 points was the lowest ‘over/under’ result in Super Bowl history. The three points by the Rams matched an all-time low in the big game, matching the Miami Dolphins from way back in Super Bowl VI.

The ‘over/under’ on that outcome closed at 56 points, which was the 11th Super Bowl to have a total close in the fifties. The ‘under’ has gone 7-4 in Super Bowl matchups that have closed with a total in the fifties.

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THE COIN TOSS
Having a tough time deciding on what side of the line or total you like, but still want some action?  Wagering on the Super Bowl coin toss, a 50/50 proposition, is an option many turn to each year.

Five of the last six years the coin toss has come up tails on Super Bowl Sunday, with the NFC team winning an amazing 19 of the last 22. Last year it was heads the Rams added to that total. Surprisingly, the team that has won the coin toss has lost the past five Super Bowls.

Throughout the game’s history the coin toss has been nearly 50/50 with heads coming up 25 times and tails landing 28 times in the 53 Super Bowls. 

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THE FAN’S BEST BET
I created a Twitter poll to ask my followers what they thought was the best bet…

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MY BEST BETS
$100 ML SF (+107)

$50 / 2-team parlay: SF ML / Under 54

Prediction: 49ers 27, Chiefs 24

Follow me on Twitter for more football talk @DanClasgens

  • Categories: NFL

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