Kentucky Derby 151: My Picks

The first Saturday in May means one thing: it’s Kentucky Derby Day. This year marks the 151st edition of the “Run for the Roses,” and we’re in for what should be another thrilling two minutes of horse racing.

As I’ve shared in past posts, attending the Kentucky Derby is a bucket-list experience. But even if you’re watching from home or hosting a Derby party, getting a wager or two in makes it that much more exciting. If you’re new to betting, check out my Horse Racing Betting Basics to get started.

Why Bet Derby Day?
The Derby is the best day of the year to bet on exotics like the Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta. With a full field of 20 horses, the payouts are often massive — even $1 trifectas have paid as much as $10,000+ in recent years. In fact, over the past decade, the average $1 trifecta has returned nearly $4,000.

Weather Watch
Track conditions can shake things up. Six of the last 15 Derbies were run on sloppy tracks, and rain is once again in the Louisville forecast. That said, Churchill Downs’ top-tier drainage system usually keeps the dirt surface in decent shape, even with some rain.

Let’s first take a look at the full slate of horses on tap to be in the race:

1. Citizen Bull (Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert) 20-1
2. Neoequos (Flavien Prat, Saffie Joseph Jr.) 30-1
3. Final Gambit (Luan Machado, Brad Cox) 30-1
4. Rodriguez (Mike Smith, Bob Baffert) 12-1 SCRATCHED
5. American Promise (Nik Juarez, D. Wayne Lukas) 30-1
6. Admire Daytona (Christophe Lemaire, Yukihiro Kato) 30-1
7. Luxor Cafe (Joao Moreira, Noriyuki Hori) 15-1
8. Journalism (Umberto Rispoli, Michael McCarthy) 3-1
9. Burnham Square (Brian Hernandez Jr., Ian Wilkes) 12-1
10. Grande (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher) 20-1 SCRATCHED
11. Flying Mohawk (Joe Ramos, Whit Beckman) 30-1
12. East Avenue (Manuel Franco, Brendan Walsh) 20-1
13. Publisher (Irad Ortiz Jr., Steve Asmussen) 20-1
14. Tiztastic (Joel Rosario, Steve Asmussen) 20-1
15. Render Judgment (Julien Leparoux, Kenny McPeek) 30-1
16. Coal Battle (Juan Vargas, Lonnie Briley) 30-1
17. Sandman (Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse) 6-1
18. Sovereignty (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott) 5-1
19. Chunk of Gold (Jareth Loveberry, Ethan West) 30-1
20. Owen Almighty (Javier Castellano, Brian Lynch) 30-1
21. Baeza (Flavien Prat, John Shirreffs) 12-1

My Top Picks

#8 Journalism (3-1)
The deserving morning-line favorite, Journalism enters off impressive prep performances. While jockey Umberto Rispoli is 0-for-2 in the Derby, he’s matured significantly since those rides. McCarthy’s colt is versatile and battle-tested — he’s my top choice.

#18 Sovereignty (5-1)
Trained by Hall-of-Famer Bill Mott, this colt was a strong second in the Florida Derby — a historically key prep (producing 25 Derby winners). He’s been training well and appears ready to peak.

#21 Baeza (12-1)
Baeza steps in as an also-eligible but deserves respect, especially if you like Journalism — he’s been competitive against him in preps. The outside post is tricky, but Flavien Prat has a Derby win (2019) and won’t be fazed.

#17 Sandman (6-1)
He benefited from a clean trip in the Arkansas Derby, but his tactical speed, 8-race experience, and strong connections make him a must-use in all exotics.

Contenders to Include

#9 Burnham Square (12-1)
The Blue Grass Stakes champ gets last year’s Derby-winning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and has been improving with each start.

#13 Publisher (20-1)
A powerful closer who could benefit if the early pace collapses — especially if the track turns muddy.

#14 Tiztastic (20-1)
The Louisiana Derby winner is a distance-tested late runner who could fly into the exotics with a clean trip.

#12 East Avenue (20-1)
The likely pacesetter, East Avenue will try to go wire-to-wire — tough in a 20-horse field, but not impossible.

#3 Final Gambit (30-1)
This longshot has been training well and is visually impressive. If he handles the Churchill surface, he’s a threat to get on the board.

#19 Chunk of Gold (30-1)
Draws wide but has a versatile style and has been running against solid company. A live bomb.

Tossing These from My Tickets

Didn’t Make the Cut:
#1 Citizen Bull, #5 American Promise, #7 Luxor Cafe, #16 Coal Battle

Avoiding:
#2 Neoequos, #6 Admire Daytona, #11 Flying Mohawk, #15 Render Judgment, #20 Owen Almighty

My Bets

Win Bets

• $15 Win – #8 Journalism (3-1)
• $5 Win – #21 Baeza (12-1) (longshot stab)

Exacta Wheel

• $2 EX Wheel: 8, 17, 18, 21 with 8, 9, 13, 14, 17, 18, 21 = $42
  (Budget version: $1 EX Wheel = $21)

Trifecta Wheel

• $1 Tri Wheel = $168
  (Budget version: $0.50 Tri = $84)
  • First: 8, 17, 18, 21
  • Second: 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 21
  • Third: 3, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14, 17, 18, 19, 21

I’ve posted this Trifecta Wheel every year since 2003 on GetSportsInfo.com — and it’s hit six times, with big scores in 2003 (Funny Cide) and 2010 (Super Saver). Last year’s Tri paid $982.36, and the long-term average is over $7,000 for a $1 wager.

I’ve also picked the winner 9 times in 21 years and nailed the Exacta seven times. Let’s see if we can add another cash to the list this year.

Best of luck and enjoy the Run for the Roses!