Kentucky Derby 146: My Picks

September 5, 2020

It’s not the first Saturday in May, There will be manyof my favorite annual traditions that will not be the same and some that will not happen at all. However, it should still be a very exciting two minutes of action as 16 horses take to the track for the 146th Run for the Roses.

As I’ve written about in the past, the Kentucky Derby is a must-attend event. This year though, no fans are allowed. However, having your own Derby party is still a thing. Just be sure to do so safely. Wagering on the race always makes it fun. For some of you beginners, here is a helpful list of some horse racing betting basics to help get you started.

If you choose to bet some exotics wagers (Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta etc.), this is the day to do it as the prices are generally high given the fact the field is as large as you’ll see with 16 horses (after some scratches) breaking from the starting gate.

Weather has been a factor recently in six of the last 11 races have been on sloppy tracks. However, that will not be the case this year as the forecast calls for a sunny day with no precipitation.

With the race four months later than normal, it has given more time for these three-year olds to develop and gain valuable experience. The horse I liked the most over the past few months, Art Collector, was taken out of the race earlier this week after a minor foot issue and will now take aim at the Preakness Stakes on October 3.

His removal has led to even lower odds for Tiz the Law, who is expected to go off as the biggest Derby favorite in three decades. The buzz is definitely deserved here.

Here’s a look at the horses that pop out to me in the field:

#17 Tiz The Law: I always roll out the Florida Derby winner somewhere near the top and have done so for decades as it has proven profitable. In recent years no prep race has yielded more Kentucky Derby winners – Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), Always Dreaming (2017), and should of come in last year too if Maxixum Security was taken down after an objection. This colt won going away in this year’s Florida Derby and has won six of his seven career races, including this year’s Belmont Stakes. He’s going to be tough to beat. Don’t overthink it.

#16 Honor A.P.: If the pace is fast it will help him in a big way. He’s a very dangerous late runner and the horse I peg to have the best chance to win not named Tiz the Law. His Santa Anita Derby win was impressive as he beat another horse in this field, Authentic, by 2 3/4 lengths.

#2 Max Player: Finished third to Tiz the Law in the Travers and Belmont and would need a much better effort to get into the mix here. Worth using in exotics.

#3 Enforceable: This horse hasn’t raced in 56 days and was less than impressive in his last two starts, but he should love the distance and will be another horse that could come on late here.

#10 Thousand Words: This horse definitely benefited from the extra time this Derby season. My preferred option from the two Bob Baffert entries.

#15 Ny Traffic: Hasn’t been able to come out on top in my of his races, but has hung in there in some tough company in recent starts.

#18 Authentic: Many questions about whether or not this horse can handle this distance and the expected tempo in this race is going to present some serious challenges. Hard to see him winning, but he could hit the board.

#5 Major Fred
#9 Mr. Big News

#4 Storm the Court
#7 Money Moves
#8 South Bend
#11 Necker Island
#12 Sole Vilante
#13 Attachment Rate
#14 Winning Impression

I like doing a Tri-Wheel each year that keys a few horses on top with about half the field on the bottom in third place.

I have posted this Tri-wheel on every year since I launched the website in 2003. It has hit five times in those 17 years, including in twice in the last five years. I would of had it last year too had Maximum Security not been taken down due to an objection. During that span the average $1 Tri paid $6,875.67. My two best hits came in 2003 (Funny Cide) and 2010 (Super Saver).

In addition to my Tri wheel, I’ve picked the winner eight times in 17 years and had the exacta seven times as well. Let’s see if we can add to the winnings in 2020.

Here are my picks:

$20 Win – #17 Tiz the Law

$2 EX Wheel – #16, #17 with #2, #3, #10, #15, #16, #17, #18 (total $24 – you can drop to $1 EX box and only pay $12 for bet)

$1 Tri Wheel
(total $84 – you can drop to down to $0.50 Tri wheel and only pay $42)

#16 Honor A.P, #17 Tiz The Law with…

#2 Max Player, #3 Enforceable, #10 Thousand Words, #15 Ny Traffic, #16 Honor A.P, #17 Tiz The Law, #18 Authentic with…

#2 Max Player, #3 Enforceable, #5 Major Fred, #9 Mr. Big News, #10 Thousand Words, #15 Ny Traffic, #16 Honor A.P, #17 Tiz The Law, #18 Authentic.


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