After 56 Super Bowl matchups some trends have developed that could offer some insight on how you approach this year’s contest from a betting perspective. I take a stab at making my picks on the final NFL game of the season.
The game opened up with Kansas City as a -2 favorite, but as of Saturday night the line has moved to Philadelphia as a -1.5 in most online sportsbooks with the total rising from 49.5 to 50.5, even 51 in some spots, in recent days.
There are so many football prop bets to consider. There are definitely a few I will identify here that are advisable bets.
If you don’t like the spread you can always play the money line. Kansas City is +108 at BetRivers and Philadelphia sits at -118 to win straight up at FanDuel which were the best prices each way I found at the time of writing this.
SUPER BOWL BETTING HISTORY
Favorites-Underdogs (SU): 37-18
Favorites-Underdogs (ATS): 29-22-2
AFC-NFC (SU): 27-29
AFC-NFC (ATS): 26-28-2
There are also plenty of player prop bets to consider, including a few of my favorites:
Devonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (+120 BetMGM)
The Eagles haven’t needed to be throwing much late in games so far in the playoffs. Things got out of hand so early in the matchup with the Giants that Smith only netted two catches on three targets. Before that contest he rolled off four straight games with six plus catches. I expect this one to be much closer and the Eagles to be passing throughout. I also like his Over 60.5 ReYd prop in the game.
Dallas Goedert over 18.5 yards longest reception (-114 FanDuel)
I am expecting the Eagles to be more pass heavy than their average game and Goedert has cleared this mark in 57 percent of his games this year.
Kenneth Gainwell over 10.5 ReYd (-130 PointsBet)
Gainwell has had a steady role in recent weeks and often for large doses. KC ceded the fourth-most receiving yards (47.6) to RBs during the regular season.
Marques Valdes-Scantling under 36.5 ReYd (-110 FanDuel)
Before exploding vs. the Bengals in the AFC Championship after being the last-man standing, MVS failed to reach 30 yards receiving in any of his previous six games. With the other wideouts getting healthy, he has the potential to be underwhelming here. I feel like this number has been inflated by recency bias.
Jerick McKinnon under 19.5 RuYd (-110 FanDuel)
If you throw out the Jaguars’ game when Patrick Mahomes went down, the volume just hasn’t been there in most weeks for McKinnon on the ground. He has fallen short of this rushing stat line in 14 of the Chiefs’ 19 games this season.
Kadarius Toney over 34.5 Ru+ReYd (-115 DraftKings)
This one is more of a hunch play than some of the others, but reports have been out there hyping up Toney this week and I do see the Chiefs using him creatively enough to get to this number.
Length of National Anthem (source Oddshark.com)
OVER 2 Minutes & 5 seconds (-185) / UNDER 2 Minutes & 5 Seconds (+140): MY PICK – UNDER: In the last 16 Super Bowls, the anthem has gone OVER the oddsmaker’s set time on nine occasions and UNDER it six times with one PUSH. Chris Stapleton is known for his raspy, slow riffs. He will definitely perform his rendition of the anthem in a slowed-down and probably acoustic version of the Star-Spangled Banner. That said, five of the past six anthems have been under 2:05. The exception had two singers on the mic. Stapleton’s over/under of 2:05 is the highest since the last country singer, Luke Bryan, who went under by five seconds.
What Color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach (source ActionNetwork.com)
Color: Green/Yellow/Lime (+200); Orange (+250), (Blue +350) Red/Pink (+400), Clear/Water (+650), Purple (+650), : MY PICK: BLUE
Over the past 22 Super Bowls, the color has varied quite a bit. Yellow has been dumped on the winning coach three times, while clear had a four-season run from Super Bowl 39-42. Purple has had its time to shine twice, while blue has hit four times in the past six Super Bowls, including each of the last two years. The big winner, however, is orange, which showered Andy Reid at the end of Super Bowl 54. Orange has happened five times in total since 2001. Sure, there’s a chance of no shower at all, as happened three times in the last 20 games, but where’s the fun in that?
ALL-TIME TRENDS (from VegasInsider.com):
The NFC has 29 wins to the AFC 27 wins through the first 56 Super Bowl matchups, including winning in each of the last two seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots have the most Super Bowl wins at six, while the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers both have five.
Favorites have gone 37-18 straight up and 29-22-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl. The largest upset came in Super Bowl III (1969) when the New York Jets beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 as 18-point underdogs.
In the 22 Super Bowls played in the 21st Century, the underdog has cashed 14 times and the favorite has come in just eight times. Super Bowl XLIX between New England and Seattle was a PK.
The ‘over/under’ has gone 27-28 in the first 56 Super Bowl matchups. No total was posted on Super Bowl I between the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs.
In the 2019 Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeated the Los Angeles Rams 13-3 and the combined 16 points was the lowest ‘over/under’ result in Super Bowl history. The three points by the Rams matched an all-time low in the big game, matching the Miami Dolphins from way back in Super Bowl VI.
The ‘over/under’ on that outcome closed at 56 points, which was the 11th Super Bowl to have a total close in the fifties.
The highest Super Bowl ‘over/under’ outcome occurred in Super Bowl XXIX when the San Francisco 49ers demolished the San Diego Chargers, 49-26.
THE COIN TOSS (TheLines.com)
Tails has won 29 times to 27 times for heads through the first 56 Super Bowls. The Bengals won the coin toss last year via Heads after the LA Rams had called Tails. Cincinnati lost the game, ruining the bet of those who wagered on Cincy to win the toss and the game itself.
Heads has now been the coin toss winner in back-to-back years as well as four out of the last five Super Bowls. This comes on the heels of tails going on a four-year winning streak in the mid-2010s.
Out of the 56 Super Bowls played thus far, just 25 teams have won the coin flip and the game. In fact, there is sizable streak currently going on as each team to win the coin toss the past eight years has wound up losing. The last team to win the toss and hoist the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the night was the 2013-14 Seattle Seahawks against the Denver Broncos.
THE FAN’S BEST BET
I created a Twitter poll to ask my followers what they thought was the best bet…
Which of the #SuperBowlLVII parlays do you think hits on Sunday?
— Dan Clasgens (@DanClasgens) February 11, 2023
The betting public is definitely starting to trend to a certain direction…
Total open 49.5, now 50.5
▪️ 59% of bets, 72% of money on Over@Chiefs open -115, now +105
▪️ 59% of bets, 47% of money on KC
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) February 11, 2023
I will lay out a plan based off what I do if someone gave me 10 units to bet on the Super Bowl. Whatever your bankroll you can apply you the percentage accordingly. All of my bets are based off trends above.
Prediction: Eagles 27, Chiefs 21
3 units: Eagles -1.5 (DraftKings -110) – BEST BET
2 units: UNDER 51 (DraftKings -110)
1.5 units: 2-team (SGP): Eagles ML / Alt Spread Total Under 54.5 (DraftKings +195)
0.5 unit: 3-player (SGP): Anytime TD Travis Kelce / Dallas Goedert / Jalen Hurts (DraftKings +850)
0.5 units: on each of the six player props listed above.
Follow me on Twitter for more football talk @DanClasgens