Betting Super Bowl LII

February 2, 2018

After 51 Super Bowl matchups some trends have developed that could offer some insight on how you approach this year’s contest from a betting perspective.

The Patriots opened as a six-point favorite, but as Super Bowl weekend begins they are a 4.5-point favorite with the total rising from 48 to 48.5.

If you don’t like the spread you can always play the money line. New England is -200 and Philadelphia sits at +170. That means to win $100 you need to wager $200 on the Patriots whereas $100 wagered would net you $170 back if the Eagles prevail.

There are also plenty of prop bets to consider, including a few I wrote about at Pro Football Focus.

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TRENDS TO CONSIDER
Over last 25 years the favorite has gone 9-14-2 against the spread, but they have won straight up 16 times. (Complete Super Bowl Betting History – VegasInsider.com)

In five of the past six years not only has the underdog covered, but they’ve won straight up.

The underdog has definitely been the way to go of late. Had the Patriots not rallied from down 25 last year it would’ve been six straight years that the dog covered and won the game.

Since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady won their first Super Bowl together in 2003, the Underdog has hit in 12 of 16 games. The Patriots started that run when they won straight up as a 14-point underdog knocking off the Rams 20-17 in Super Bowl XXXVI.

In the seven Super Bowls that Belichick and Brady have gone to together, the Patriots are 5-2 straight up. They were the favorite five times and underdogs twice. They won both games as underdogs and were 3-2 in games as favorites, yet against the spread in those five games they were only 1-4.

One of the games where the Patriots were favorites and won, but didn’t cover came in Super Bowl XXIX against the Eagles. Philadelphia covered the seven points in that contest, but fell 24-21.

In the seven Brady / Belichick Super Bowls the under has cashed four times.

The over has been the way to go in four of the last five year and has come in 14 of the past 25 Super Bowls. This year’s total of 48 points has been reached in seven of the last nine seasons.

On the season both the Eagles and Patriots own 12-6 ATS. The over is 9-9 for the Eagles and 8-10 for the Patriots.


THE COIN TOSS
Having a tough deciding on what side of the line or total you like, but still want some action?  Wagering on the Super Bowl coin toss, a 50/50 proposition, is an option many turn to each year.

The last four years the coin toss has come up tails on Super Bowl Sunday, with the NFC team winning an amazing 18 of the last 20. Surprisingly, the team that has won the coin toss has lost the past three Super Bowls.

Throughout the game’s history the coin toss has been nearly 50/50 with heads coming up 24 times and tails landing 27 times in the 51 Super Bowls. Teams winning the toss have gone on to win 24 of the 51 Super Bowls, with heads and tails each turning up an even 12 times during those wins.


THE FAN’S BEST BET
I created a Twitter poll to gage what my followers thought was the best bet…


MY BEST BETS
$110 Patriots (-4.5)

$50 2-Team Parlay
Patriots -200
Over 48

Prediction: Patriots 30, Eagles 24

Follow me on Twitter for more football talk @DanClasgens

  • Categories: NFL

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